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It has been argued that environmental degradation, loss of access to resources e. For example, Wilbanks et al. Scott et al. A study found that significant climatic changes were associated with a higher risk of conflict worldwide, and predicted that "amplified rates of human conflict could represent a large and critical social impact of anthropogenic climate change in both low- and high-income countries.
Military planners are concerned that global warming is a "threat multiplier". These challenges may threaten stability in much of the world". Global losses reveal rapidly rising costs due to extreme weather-related events since the s.
It is difficult to quantify the relative impact of socio-economic factors and climate change on the observed trend. The total economic impacts from climate change are highly uncertain.
Most studies assessed by Smith et al. This assessment is consistent with the findings of more recent studies, as reviewed by Hitz and Smith Economic impacts are expected to vary regionally. Aggregate impacts have also been quantified in non-economic terms. For example, climate change over the 21st century is likely to adversely affect hundreds of millions of people through increased coastal flooding, reductions in water supplies, increased malnutrition and increased health impacts.
With very high confidence, Rosenzweig et al. By the year , ecosystems will be exposed to atmospheric CO 2 levels substantially higher than in the past , years, and global temperatures at least among the highest of those experienced in the past , years. The stresses caused by climate change, added to other stresses on ecological systems e.
Climate change has been estimated to be a major driver of biodiversity loss in cool conifer forests, savannas , mediterranean-climate systems, tropical forests , in the Arctic tundra , and in coral reefs. A literature assessment by Fischlin et al. Assessing whether future changes in ecosystems will be beneficial or detrimental is largely based on how ecosystems are valued by human society. Physical, ecological and social systems may respond in an abrupt, non-linear or irregular way to climate change.
A quantitative entity behaves "irregularly" when its dynamics are discontinuous i. Irregular behaviour in Earth systems may give rise to certain thresholds, which, when crossed, may lead to a large change in the system. Some singularities could potentially lead to severe impacts at regional or global scales. It is possible that human-induced climate change could trigger large-scale singularities, but the probabilities of triggering such events are, for the most part,  poorly understood.
With low to medium confidence, Smith et al. Since the assessment by Smith et al. It says also that when fighting those problems, each action, even taken locally, is important. Climate change may have an effect on the carbon cycle in an interactive "feedback" process. A feedback exists where an initial process triggers changes in a second process that in turn influences the initial process. A positive feedback intensifies the original process, and a negative feedback reduces it.
This estimate was made with high confidence. On the other hand, with medium confidence, Schneider et al. The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation AMOC is an important component of the Earth's climate system, characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic and a southward flow of colder water in the deep Atlantic.
Warming is still expected to occur over most of the European region downstream of the North Atlantic Current in response to increasing GHGs, as well as over North America. Emissions of GHGs are a potentially irreversible commitment to sustained radiative forcing in the future. CO 2 is the most important anthropogenic GHG. This commitment may not be truly irreversible should techniques be developed to remove CO 2 or other GHGs directly from the atmosphere, or to block sunlight to induce cooling.
Little is known about the effectiveness, costs or potential side-effects of geoengineering options. Human-induced climate change may lead to irreversible impacts on physical, biological, and social systems. A report by Molina et al. The overwhelming evidence of human-caused climate change documents both current impacts with significant costs and extraordinary future risks to society and natural systems.
NASA has released public data and tools to predict how temperature and rainfall patterns worldwide may change through to the year caused by increasing carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere. The dataset shows projected changes worldwide on a regional level simulated by 21 climate models. The data can be viewed on a daily timescale for individual cities and towns and may be used to conduct climate risk assessments to predict the local and global effects of weather dangers, for example droughts, floods, heat waves and declines in agriculture productivity, and help plan responses to global warming effects.
This language is intended to provide an indication of the level of confidence that IPCC authors have about a particular finding. The qualitative language used to describe uncertainty has a quantitative scale associated with it. The quantitative values for qualitative terms are intended to ensure that confidence levels are interpreted correctly. This is because qualitative statements, e. Confidence levels used in the TAR: Confidence statements made in AR4 are listed below: IPCC  uses the following terms: The quantitative values used by IPCC authors are "subjective" probabilities,    also known as "personalist" or " Bayesian " probabilities,  and reflect the expert judgement of IPCC authors.
In this formulation, probability is not only a function of an event, but also the state of information that is available to the person making the assessment. The IPCC also uses another scale to describe the likelihood of a particular event occurring. For example, the judgement that an event is improbable e. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia.
This article is primarily about effects during the 21st century. For longer-term effects, see Long-term effects of global warming.
See also Effects of global warming on humans. See also: Attribution of recent climate change. Global mean surface temperature change since , relative to the — mean. The graph above shows the average of a set of temperature simulations for the 20th century black line , followed by projected temperatures for the 21st century based on three greenhouse gas emissions scenarios colored lines. Main article: Physical impacts of climate change.
Retreat of glaciers since Effects of global warming on oceans. Current sea level rise. Future sea level. Regional effects of global warming. Temperatures across the world in the s left and the s right , as compared to average temperatures from to Projected changes in average temperatures across the world in the s under three greenhouse gas GHG emissions scenarios.
Main articles: Effects of climate change on humans and Climate change, industry and society. Climate change and gender. Climate change and agriculture. Food security , Food vs fuel , and — world food price crisis. Effects of global warming on human health. Water security. Environmental migrant and Climate security.
Economic impacts of climate change. Climate change and ecosystems. Extinction risk from global warming , Effect of climate change on plant biodiversity , Effects of climate change on terrestrial animals , and Effects of climate change on marine mammals.
Shutdown of thermohaline circulation. Multiple names: Chapter Detection and attribution of observed impacts archived 18 October , pp.
Phenology, in: Chapter 4: Terrestrial and inland water systems archived 20 October , p. Understanding and Attributing Climate Change". Executive Summary. Emergent risks and key vulnerabilities archived 20 October , pp. Contributions to Resilience through Climate Change Responses, in: Chapter Climate-resilient pathways: The Decision-making Context, in: Technical summary archived 18 October , p. Summary for Policymakers , pp.
Chapter 6: Assessing Transformation Pathways archived 20 October , in: The range given by Prinn and Reilly is 3. Summary for Policymakers , p. The range given by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is 3. Adaptation Limits and Transformation, in: Key Risks across Sectors and Regions, in: What drives changes in climate?
Retrieved See also Hegerl et al. What are Climate Change Detection and Attribution? March 6, Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change" , Sec. Climate Extremes: Observations, Modelling and Impacts. Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context" , Sec. Projected climate change and its impacts: Table SPM. Sec 2. January 28, US National Academy of Sciences. Global Climate Projections", Sec Science Briefs: Earth's Climate History: Palaeoclimate" , Sec. Vulnerability to Climate Change and Reasons for Concern: A Synthesis", Footnote 4, in Sec What does Each Reason for Concern Indicate?
Human Caused Forcings". Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions. Washington, DC: National Academy Press. Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises. United States National Academy of Sciences. June Technical Summary, p. New Scientist. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Next page Causes of global warming. Learn More in these related Britannica articles: Global warming , an increase in global average surface temperature, is but one of them.
Both the land and the oceans are increasing in temperature at different rates in different places. The Arctic and Antarctic seem to be heating up the most, while temperature changes in…. The most important of the gases is carbon dioxide, but methane, nitrous oxide, and the chlorofluorocarbon compounds CFCs also contribute significantly.
The largest sources of carbon dioxide are the combustion of fossil…. The glaciers and ice sheets of Antarctica may document such change, especially in West Antarctica. Average winter temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula have increased by Increases in the global mean evaporation and precipitation rates are expected from a doubling of the carbon dioxide level and a few degrees rise in global….
Climate carbon sources and carbon sequestration In carbon sequestration: Carbon sources and carbon sinks climate change In climate change: Cenozoic climates conservation and extinction factors In conservation: Global warming contemporary climatic change In Earth: The atmosphere desertification In desertification: Historical development European heat wave of In European heat wave of greenhouse effect In greenhouse effect View More.
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